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Argus Maximus

A team-picker for Cartola FC. A Random Forest predicts every player's points, then linear programming picks the best legal lineup.

The Hundred Eyes see everything.

A team-picker for Cartola FC (Brazil's biggest fantasy football game), built in two stages: prediction and optimization.

Prediction

First, a Random Forest model predicts how many points each of the 500+ available players will score next round. Average points, recent form, home/away, opponent strength and scouts (tackles, shots, fouls) all feed in.

Optimization

Then, once every player has a predicted score, linear programming picks the actual lineup: maximize total predicted points, subject to staying under budget and fielding a valid formation (4-3-3, 4-4-2, whatever). No manual tinkering with the squad. The solver just finds the mathematically best team the predictions allow.

Data

Historical data for the early rounds came from Henrique P. Gomide's caRtola dataset. Everything since is pulled by its own ETL script.

Next

Still actively growing. A proper database is replacing the CSVs next, then backtesting to see how the model would've actually done in past rounds.

Project notes

the why and the how, in parts

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